tc.redstormrising-第3部分

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pace　Defense　mand；　which　was　concerned　that　the　fire　was　a　possible　missile　launch　directed　at　the　United　States；　or　an　attempt　to　blind　American　Early…Warning　satellites　with　a　laser　or　other　ground…based　device。
At　no　time；　the　source　pointed　out；　was　there　any　thought　of　increasing　American　alert　levels；　or　of　bringing　American　nuclear　forces　to　higher　states　of　readiness。　〃It　was　all　over　in　less　than　thirty　minutes；〃　the　source　said。
No　confirmation　was　received　from　the　Russian　news　agency；　TASS；　but　the　Soviets　rarely　publish　reports　of　such　incidents。
The　fact　that　American　officials　referred　to　two　epic　industrial　accidents　is　an　indication　that　many　fatalities　might　result　from　this　major　fire。　Defense　sources　were　unwilling　to　speculate　on　the　possibility　of　civilian　casualties。　The　city　of　Nizhnevartovsk　is　bordered　by　the　petroleum　plex。
The　Nizhnevartovsk　oil　production　field　accounts　for　roughly　31。3　percent　of　total　Soviet　crude　oil；　according　to　the　American　Petroleum　Institute；　and　the　adjacent；　newly　built　Nizhnevartovsk　refinery　for　approximately　17。3　percent　of　petroleum　distillate　production。
〃Fortunately　for　them；〃　Donald　Evans；　a　spokesman　for　the　Institute　explained；　〃oil　underground　is　pretty　hard　to　burn；　and　you　can　expect　the　fire　to　burn　itself　out　in　a　few　days。〃　The　refinery；　however；　depending　on　how　much　of　it　was　involved；　could　be　a　major　expense。　〃When　they　go；　they　usually　go　pretty　big；〃　Evans　said。　〃But　the　Russians　have　sufficient　excess　refining　capacity　to　take　up　the　slack；　especially　with　all　the　work　they've　been　doing　at　their　Moscow　plex。〃
Evans　was　unable　to　speculate　on　the　cause　of　the　fire；　saying；　〃The　climate　could　have　something　to　do　with　it。　We　had　a　few　problems　in　the　Alaskan　fields　that　took　some　careful　work　to　solve。　Beyond　that；　any　refinery　is　a　potential　Disneyland　for　fire；　and　there　simply　is　no　substitute　for　intelligent；　careful；　well…trained　crews　to　run　them。〃
This　is　the　latest　in　a　series　of　setbacks　to　the　Soviet　oil　industry。　It　was　admitted　only　last　fall　at　the　plenum　of　the　munist　Party　Central　mittee　that　production　goals　in　both　the　Eastern　Siberian　fields　〃had　not　entirely　fulfilled　earlier　hopes。〃
This　seemingly　mild　statement　is　being　seen　in　Western　circles　as　a　stinging　indictment　of　the　policies　of　now…departed　Petroleum　Industry　minister　Zatyzhin；　since　replaced　by　Mikhail　Sergetov；　former　chief　of　the　Leningrad　Party　apparatus；　regarded　as　a　rising　star　in　the　Soviet　Party。　A　technocrat　with　a　background　of　engineering　and　Party　work；　Sergetov's　task　of　reorganizing　the　Soviet　oil　industry　is　seen　as　a　task　that　could　last　years。
AP…BA…01…31　0501EST…FL
**END　OF　STORY**

MOSCOW；　R。S。F。S。R。
Mikhail　Eduardovich　Sergetov　never　had　a　chance　to　read　the　wire　service　report。　Summoned　from　his　official　dacha　in　the　birch　forests　surrounding　Moscow；　he'd　flown　at　once　to　Nizhnevartovsk　and　stayed　for　only　ten　hours　before　being　recalled　to　make　his　report　in　Moscow。　Three　months　on　the　job；　he　thought；　sitting　in　the　empty　forward　cabin　of　the　IL…86　airliner；　and　this　has　to　happen！
His　two　principal　deputies；　a　pair　of　skilled　young　engineers；　had　been　left　behind　and　were　trying　even　now　to　make　sense　of　the　chaos；　to　save　what　could　be　saved；　as　he　reviewed　his　notes　for　the　Politburo　meeting　later　in　the　day。　Three　hundred　men　were　known　to　have　died　fighting　the　fire；　and；　miraculously；　fewer　than　two　hundred　citizens　in　the　city　of　Nizhnevartovsk。　That　was　unfortunate；　but　not　a　matter　of　great　significance　except　insofar　as　those　trained　men　killed　would　eventually　have　to　be　replaced　by　other　trained　men　drawn　from　the　staffs　of　other　large　refineries。
The　refinery　was　almost　totally　destroyed。　Reconstruction　would　take　a　minimum　of　two　to　three　years；　and　would　account　for　a　sizable　percentage　of　national　steel　pipe　production；　plus　all　the　other　specialty　items　unique　to　a　facility　of　this　type：　Fifteen　thousand　million　rubles。　And　how　much　of　the　special　equipment　would　have　to　be　purchased　from　foreign　sources…how　much　precious　hard　currency　and　gold　would　be　wasted？
And　that　was　the　good　news。
The　bad　news：　the　fire　that　had　engulfed　the　production　field　had　totally　destroyed　the　welltops。　Time　to　replace：　at　least　thirty…six　months！
Thirty…six　months；　Sergetov　reflected　bleakly；　if　we　can　divert　the　drill　rigs　and　crews　to　redrill　every　damned　well　and　at　the　same　time　rebuild　the　EOR　systems。　For　a　minimum　of　eighteen　months　the　Soviet　Union　will　have　an　enormous　shortfall　in　oil　production。　Probably　more　like　thirty　months。　What　will　happen　to　our　economy？
He　pulled　a　pad　of　lined　paper　from　his　briefcase　and　began　to　make　some　calculations。　It　was　a　three…hour　flight；　and　Sergetov　did　not　notice　it　was　over　until　the　pilot　came　back　to　announce　they　had　landed。
He　looked　with　squinted　eyes　at　the　snow…covered　landscape　of　Vnukovo…2；　the　VIP…only　airport　outside　of　Moscow；　and　walked　alone　down　the　boarding　stairs　to　a　waiting　ZIL　limousine。　The　car　sped　off　at　once；　without　stopping　at　any　of　the　security　checkpoints。　The　shivering　militia　officers　snapped　to　attention　as　the　ZIL　passed；　then　returned　to　the　business　of　keeping　warm　in　the　subzero　temperatures。　The　sun　was　bright；　the　sky　clear　but　for　some　thin；　high　clouds。　Sergetov　looked　vacantly　out　the　windows；　his　mind　mulling　over　figures　he　had　already　rechecked　a　half…dozen　times。　The　Politburo　was　waiting　for　him；　his　KGB　driver　told　him。
Sergetov　had　been　a　〃candidate；〃　or　nonvoting　member；　of　the　Politburo　for　just　six　months；　which　meant　that；　along　with　his　eight　other　junior　colleagues；　he　advised　the　thirteen　men　who　alone　made　the　decisions　that　mattered　in　the　Soviet　Union。　His　portfolio　was　energy　production　and　distribution。　He　had　held　that　post　since　September；　and　was　only　beginning　to　establish　his　plan　for　a　total　reorganization　of　the　seven　regional　and　all…union　ministries　that　handled　energy　functions…and　predictably　spent　most　of　their　time　battling　one　another…into　a　full　department　that　reported　directly　to　the　Politburo　and　Party　Secretariat；　instead　of　having　to　work　through　the　Council　of　Ministers　bureaucracy。　He　briefly　closed　his　eyes　to　thank　God…there　might　be　one；　he　reasoned…that　his　first　remendation；　delivered　only　a　month　earlier；　had　concerned　security　and　political　reliability　in　many　of　the　fields。　He　had　specifically　remended　further　Russification　of　the　largely　〃foreign〃　workforce。　For　this　reason；　he　did　not　fear　for　his　own　career；　which　up　to　now　had　been　an　uninterrupted　success　story。　He　shrugged。　The　task　he　was　about　to　face　would　decide　his　future　in　any　case。　And　perhaps　his　country's。
The　ZIL　proceeded　down　Leningradskiy　Prospekt；　which　turned　into　Gor'kogo；　the　limousine　speeding　through　the　center　lane　that　policemen　kept　clear　of　traffic　for　the　exclusive　use　of　the　vlasti。　They　motored　past　the　Intourist　Hotel　into　Red　Square；　and　finally　approached　the　Kremlin　gate。　Here　the　driver　did　stop　for　the　security　checks；　three　of　them；　conducted　by　KGB　troops　and　soldiers　of　the　Taman　Guards。　Five　minutes　later　the　limousine　pulled　to　the　door　of　the　Council　of　Ministers　building；　the　sole　modern　structure　in　the　fortress。　The　guards　here　knew　Sergetov　by　sight；　and　saluted　crisply　as　they　held　open　the　door　so　that　his　exposure　to　the　freezing　temperatures　would　last　but　a　brief　span　of　seconds。
The　Politburo　had　been　holding　it's　meetings　in　this　fourth…floor　room　for　only　a　month　while　their　usual　quarters；　in　the　old　Arsenal　building　were　undergoing　a　belated　renovation。　The　older　men　grumbled　at　the　loss　of　the　old　Czarist　forts；　but　Sergetov　preferred　the　modernity。　About　time；　he　thought；　that　the　men　of　the　Party　surrounded　themselves；　with　the　works　of　socialism　instead　of　the　moldy　trappings　of　the　Romanovs。
The　room　was　deathly　quiet　as　he　entered。　Had　this　been　in　the　Arsenal；　the　fifty…four　year　old　technocrat　reflected；　the　atmosphere　would　have　been　altogether　like　a　funeral…and　there　had　been　all　too　many　of　those。　Slowly；　the　Party　was　running　out　of　the　old　men　who　had　survived　Stalin's　terror；　and　the　current　crop　of　members；　all　〃young〃　men　in　their　fifties　or　early　sixties；　was　finally　being　heard。　The　guard　was　being　changed。　Too　slowly…too　damned　slowly…for　Sergetov　and　his　generation　of　Party　leaders；　despite　the　new　General　Secretary。　The　man　was　already　a　grandfather。　It　sometimes　seemed　to　Sergetov　that　by　the　time　these　old　men　were　gone；　he'd　be　one　himself。　But　looking　around　this　room　now；　he　felt　young　enough。
〃Good　day；　rades；〃　Sergetov　said；　handing　his　coat　to　an　aide；　who　withdrew　at　once；　closing　the　doors　behind　him。　The　other　men　moved　at　once　to　their　seats。　Sergetov　took　his；　halfway　down　the　right　side。
The　Party　General　Secretary　brought　the　meeting　to　order。　His　voice　was　controlled　and　businesslike。　〃rade　Sergetov；　you　may　begin　your　report。　First；　we　wish　to　hear　your　explanation　of　exactly　what　happened。〃
〃rades；　at　approximately　twenty…three　hundred　hours　yesterday；　Moscow　Time；　three　armed　men　entered　the　central　control　plex　of　the　Nizhnevartovsk　oil　plex　and　mitted　a　highly　sophisticated　act　of　sabotage。〃
〃Who　were　they？〃　the　Defense　Minister　asked　sharply。